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THE WEEK AHEAD 13.07.2020

This week we will look forward to a week full of Central Bank decisions, as the ECB, Bank of Japan and Bank of Canada will all make interest rate announcements, which should have a big impact on the movement of their currencies. We will also be waiting for the announcement of the U.K. GDP figures which will impact the GBP directly.

Tuesday 14th July

  • Australian Employment Report:  The labor market in Australia has been a disaster in the wake of the Pandemic. Last May, the economy lost 227.7 thousand jobs, much worse than the forecast of 105,000. Analysts are now projecting a strong rebound in June, with an estimate of 100.000.
  • British GDP:  The monthly GDP release of last month was a big headline, as the April release fell by a staggering 20.4%, reflective of the severe economic conditions that have been felt due to Covid-19. Analysts are now projecting a rebound in the May numbers, with a forecast of 5%.

 US Inflation:  Consumer inflation dropped sharply in the wake of the pandemic. CPI fell for three consecutive months; however, analysts expect a strong bounce back in June, with a forecast of 0.6%. The core reading is projected to post a gain of 0.1%.

  • Chinese GDP:  China’s economy decreased by 6.8% in Q1 reflecting the devastating impact of Covid-19 on the world’s second-biggest economy. Improved news is expected this time in Q2, with an estimate of 2.2%.

Wednesday 15th July

  • British Inflation:  UK inflation started the year with inflation number of 1.8%, however it’s been all negative since then. In May, inflation fell to 0.5%, down from 0.8%. This time, a reading of 0.5% is expected.

Bank of Japan Rate Decision: The Bank of Japan is projected to maintain its current monetary policy as it is. Investors will be keeping a close eye however on the tone of the bank’s rate statement that will follow.

Bank of Canada Rate Decision:  The Bank of Canada is projected to maintain interest rates at 0.25% this time, where it has been since March. Canada’s economy is bouncing back slowly from the Pandemic, and investors will be looking at the rate statement that will follow, to see what is the bank’s outlook of the economy this time.

Thursday 16th July

  • British Employment Report:  Unemployment in the U.K. has increased in the wake of the Coronavirus. In May, unemployment rolls dropped to 528,900, down from 856,500. Wage growth also dropped from 2.4% to 1.0% and is now projected to decrease by 0.4%. The unemployment rate has been around the 3.9% figure for two months in a row. It is expected to increase to 4.1%.
  • French Final CPI:  France continues to post low inflation numbers. The initial read of -0.1% in June is projected to be confirmed in the final release of its inflation numbers.

 US Unemployment Claims: US. Jobless claims continue to slowly fall and the upcoming number is projected at 1.25 million, down from 1.31 million a week ago.

 ECB Rate Decision:  The ECB is projected to leave the interest rates at a flat 0.00%. Investors will be eager to know the rate statement’s details, given the severe economic conditions that is affecting the eurozone at the moment.

Friday 17th July

  • Eurozone Inflation: Last May, the Eurozone inflation reading came in at 0.1%, down from 0.3% a month earlier. The projection for June is at 0.3%. The core number is projected to come in at 0.8%, following two straight readings of 0.9% in a row.

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