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THE WEEK AHEAD 21.07.2020

This week features PMI numbers in the US, UK and the eurozone. These indices are important gauges of the strength of the manufacturing and services sectors. Additionally, the central banks of Japan and Australia will also release the minutes of their policy meetings.

In the US, initial unemployment claims fell slightly to 1.30 million, down from 1.31 million beforehand. The total number of claims is still higher than 32 million, as the employment situation remains dull.

Tuesday 21st July, 2020

  • Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Tuesday, 1:30. The RBA will release its minutes of last week’s policy meeting. The tone of the minutes can potentially affect the movement of AUD/USD.
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Wednesday 22nd July, 2020

  • Canadian Core Inflation Rate YoY (JUN): Forecast: 0.9% Previous: 0.7%
  • Canadian Inflation Rate YoY (JUN) Forecast: 0.3% Previous: -0.4%

Thursday 23rd July, 2020

    • US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 8:30. Initial US employment claims continue their decline, albeit at a slower rate. Jobless claims fell lower to 1.30 million, down from 1.31 in the previous release. Another little drop is expected in the upcoming release, with a projection of 1.28 million.

Friday 24th July, 2020

    • UK Manufacturing PMI: Friday, 8:30. Manufacturing PMI was at 50.1 in June, just above the 50.0 mark, which separates contraction from expansion. The initial projection for July stands at 52.0.

     

    • US Manufacturing PMI: Friday, 13:45. The PMI has not given a reading showing expansion (above 50.0) since February 2020. The index improved to 49.8 in June, up sharply from 39.8 beforehand. The upward trend is still expected to continue, with a projection of 52.0.

     

    • US Services PMI: Friday, 13:45. In June, the PMI rose from 36.9 to 47.9. The projection for July stands at 51.0. 

     

    • Eurozone PMIs: Friday, 7:15 in France, 7:30 in Germany, and 8:00 for the whole eurozone. In Germany and the eurozone, manufacturing PMIs improved sharply in May, but remained in a contraction territory. The German PMI improved from 36.6 to 45.2, while the eurozone indicator rose from 39.4 to 47.4. French Manufacturing PMI improved to 52.3, which indicates expansion. In Germany and the eurozone, initial readings for July are estimated to be better but remain in contraction territory, with projections of 48.0 and 49.6, respectively. In the services sector, German PMI is expected to improve to 50.1 just above the 50.0 threshold, which separates contraction from expansion. The eurozone index is projected to rise to 51.0 and the French indicator to 52.3.

     

    • UK Services PMI: Friday, 8:30. After showing a big drop in April, with a read of just 12.3, the index has recovered well. In June, the index improved to 47.0 and the initial projection for July stands at 51.1, which indicates a slight expansion.

     

    • All Times above are GMT

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