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THE WEEK AHEAD 05.10.2020

Monday, October 5th

 • Brexit in focus. The final formal round of talks is over, the British government expects trade negotiations to continue up to the EU summit in mid-October.

 • Turkey and Greece may resume exploratory talks over maritime disputes this week.

 • National Association for Business Economics (NABE) holds its 62nd annual meeting, virtually. The three-day event will focus on “Global Reset? Economics, Business and Policy in the Pandemic.” Chicago Fed Chair Charles Evans will speak.

 • Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speaks at the Fintech South event on regulating financial technology.

 • South Africa’s ruling party continues meeting to discuss a proposed economic recovery plan.

Economic Data

  • U.S. ISM services, Markit services/composite PMIs
  • South Africa PMI
  • Thailand CPI
  • Services PMI: Euro-area, U.K.
  • Singapore retail sales
  • Turkey CPI

Tuesday, October 6th

 • Top diplomats from ‘Quad’ countries meet in Tokyo, seen as a democratic counter to China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific region. U.S. Secretary of State Michael Pompeo, Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi, Australian Foreign Minister Marise Payne and India’s Subrahmanyam Jaishankar will attend.

 • The RBA Interest Rate Decision: No changes expected with its main policy programs and cash rate.

 • IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva delivers IMF’s annual curtain raiser speech, previewing key issues for the IMF/World Bank meetings next week.

 • Fed Chair Jerome Powell and ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane deliver keynote addresses at the NABE conference.

 • Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker discusses machine learning via a webinar hosted by the Global Interdependence Center. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will speak to Leadership Florida about “An Inclusive Recovery.”

 • Bank of Mexico Governor Alejandro Diaz de Leon discusses the global economy with Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan, via webcast.

 • ECB President Christine Lagarde participates in a panel discussion organized by the Bridge Forum Dialogue.

 • German Chancellor Angela Merkel speaks at a German industry event in Berlin.

 • Norwegian Central Bank Governor Oystein Olsen speaks in Oslo.

 • South African Reserve Bank will publish its six-month Monetary Policy Review.

Economic Data

  •  • U.S. trade balance
  •  • Australia trade
  •  • Germany factory orders
  •  • India services PMI

Wednesday, October 7th

 • Pompeo visits South Korea. Seoul is pushing for a resumption of stalled nuclear negotiations between President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.

 • U.S. Vice Presidential debate takes place in Salt Lake City. Vice President Mike Pence will square off with Joe Biden’s running mate, California Senator Kamala Harris.

 • EIA crude oil inventory report

 • Fed Presidents Raphael Bostic (Atlanta), Neel Kashkari (Minneapolis) and Eric Rosengren (Boston) speak at a virtual event on “Racism and the Economy.”

 • New York Fed President John Williams moderates a discussion with Henry Kissinger, hosted by the Economic Club of New York. Williams will also discuss “Flexible Average Inflation Targeting” at an event hosted by Hoover Economic Policy Working Group.

 • Chicago Fed President Charles Evans discusses the outlook for the U.S. economy.

 • ECB’s Lagarde and Governing Council Member Francois Villeroy de Galhauspeak at the Paris Europlace conference.

 • IMF releases the analytical chapters of its World Economic Outlook: one on mitigating climate change and one on the economic impact of the great lockdown.

 • The minutes of the Sept. 15-16 meeting of the FOMC will closely be watched for hints on what conditions are necessary to trigger a rate increase. The minutes may also reveal whether policy makers discussed increasing asset purchases, continuing to restrict bank dividends, and allowing higher inflation and lower unemployment than officials previously had tolerated.

Economic Data

  •  • US FOMC meeting minutes
  •  • South Africa gross/net reserves, business confidence
  •  • Poland rate decision: Base rate to remain unchanged at 0.10%
  •  • Germany industrial production
  •  • Spain industrial output
  •  • U.K. house prices
  •  • Switzerland foreign currency reserves

Thursday, October 8th

 • BOE Governor Andrew Bailey, ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabeland Governing Council member Pablo Hernandez de Cos speak at the Single Resolution Board conference.

 •  The ECB publishes the account of the monetary policy meeting of the Governing Council, held on Sept. 9-10.

 •  Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem gives a speech via videoconference.

 • Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari may present his 2021 budget.

 • OPEC publishes the World Oil Outlook.

Economic Data

  •  • US initial jobless claims
  •  • Mexico CPI, central bank policy minutes
  •  • Bank of France industrial sentiment
  •  • UK RICS house prices
  •  • Hungary CPI
  •  • Canada housing starts
  •  • Japan current account balance
  •  • Norway GDP
  •  • New Zealand business confidence

Friday, October 9th

  •  • Industrial production: France, Italy, U.K.
  •  • Romania GDP
  •  • US Baker Hughes rig count, wholesale inventories
  •  • Canada unemployment rate
  •  • Japan household spending

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